Performance analysis of specific yield for solar PV based on statistical technique

Mohamad Fakhri, Megat Zhafrann Amyr (2024) Performance analysis of specific yield for solar PV based on statistical technique. Project Report. Universiti Teknikal Malaysia Melaka, Melaka, Malaysia. (Submitted)

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Abstract

This study develops a time series model to forecast the specific yield of solar panels in the Faculty of Electrical Technology and Engineering (FTKE) area. The study uses data from four types of solar panels around the (FTKE) area: Thin Film (TF) solar panels, Heterojunction (HIT) solar panels, monocrystalline solar panels and polycrystalline solar panels. Initially, the analysis begins with data pre-processing to calculate descriptive statistics, processing missing values and data merging. Then, the descriptive statistics are calculated, revealing that TF solar panels have the maximum specific yield. The study is then focus on forecasting the specific yield of TF solar panels. Subsequently, the time series models ARMA and ARIMA are developed using Minitab software to analyze the processed data. The forecast model's accuracy will be evaluated through Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Squared Error (MSE) to determine the best forecast model. The developed model is used to forecast the specific yield at FTKE, UTeM in the future.

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