Forecasting Highly Irregular Demands

Wan Noridayu , Wan Mansor (2011) Forecasting Highly Irregular Demands. Project Report. UTeM, Melaka, Malaysia. (Submitted)

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Abstract

The author presents the case of an Independent Power Producer (IPP) facing the problem of managing the inventories of hundreds of different items. A key feature of the problem is that the demand for the vast majority of items is intermittent. This project address the problem of forecasting intermittent demand in which most of the time the demand is zero, however, in some periods the demand is very large. This problem is faced by almost all companies that store and uses spare parts for their preventive and breakdown maintenance works. This project intends to investigate the use of Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES) and Moving Average (MA) as forecasting models that capable of solving the forecasting problems of intermittent demand. A comparison works among the two models will be carried out using a real data collected from YTL Power Services Sdn Bhd (YTLPS) in Paka, Terengganu.

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