Forecasting system marginal price(SMP) in the Malaysian electricity market using time series technique

Abdul Rahman, Siti Noor Hidayah (2024) Forecasting system marginal price(SMP) in the Malaysian electricity market using time series technique. Project Report. Universiti Teknikal Malaysia Melaka, Melaka, Malaysia. (Submitted)

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Abstract

Forecasting SMP is critical in power systems, allowing market participants and grid operators to made more informed decision. This project is about to analyse system marginal electricity price in Malaysia data via statistical approach. This project used the real data collected from Single Buyer (SB) websites to forecast marginal price. The system marginal price was observed within fourteen months duration from 1 February 2021 until 24 April 2022. This project has three goals which is identifying key inputs that influence future SMP, developing a regression analysis and ARIMA model using Microsoft Excel and MATLAB software, and validating the results using actual data and comparison to other forecasting models. The accuracy of the model was evaluated through mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and mean absolute error (MAE) calculation to determine the least error of the model. Through a correlation analysis in Microsoft Excel and the time series model development, the project seeks to improve forecasting accuracy beyond that of existing models, thereby providing valuable insights and enhancing comprehension of SMP forecasting. The developed model then used to forecast system marginal price in the future.

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