Modelling And Forecasting The Electricity Demand In Administration Building At Technology Campus UTeM By Using Statistical Analysis

Shamsuddin, Norsuriana (2016) Modelling And Forecasting The Electricity Demand In Administration Building At Technology Campus UTeM By Using Statistical Analysis. Project Report. UTeM, Melaka, Malaysia. (Submitted)

Text (24 Pages) Modelling And Forecasting The Electricity Demand In Administration Building At Technology Campus UTeM By Using Statistical Analysis.pdf - Submitted Version Download (330kB)

Abstract

In this paper, an essential element of electric utility resource planning is forecasting the annual electricity consumption for the short term. This study includes an approach to determine the model of electricity demand and forecast future electricity consumption, by using ARIMA for Administration Building at Technology Campus Universiti Teknikal Malaysia Melaka (UTeM). The process of study is to select the best model using statistical analysis and testing it by using data from kilowatt meter to understand its accuracy. After obtaining the most reliable model, forecasting the electricity demand is performed. The best model was selected using lowest value of Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) and the result is for Administration Building in Faculty of Engineering Technology (FTK) is model ARIMA (1,1,1) while for Administration Building in Faculty of Mechanical Engineering (FKM) is model ARIMA (2,1,2). The scenario is developed by means of how the variable is going to be changed in the following time. The model yields very satisfactory result and the range of electricity consumption in 20 days ahead are obtained.

Actions (login required)

View Item